From a historical cycle perspective, we are currently in a bear market, as analyzed in our November article. To use a cynical analogy, historically, Bitcoin has almost always seen a surge a year after the halving cycle. For example, the last halving occurred in May 2020, peaking around November 2021; this time, the halving is in April 2024, peaking in October 2025. History doesn't simply repeat itself, but it often exhibits striking similarities. Recently, the investment market, apart from cryptocurrencies, seems exceptionally active, especially precious metals. Money flows to where it's hot, which is normal. Jokingly speaking, precious metals are currently the sweetheart, while cryptocurrencies have become the old hag. Don't be discouraged; I myself once shifted from gold, crude oil, and commodities to cryptocurrencies. Every change in asset status occurs when people don't believe in it anymore. Short-term macroeconomic factors are indeed unfavorable for crypto bulls: the border conflict, the risk of a US government shutdown, hawkish expectations from the US, ETF outflows, geopolitical conflicts, etc., all present significant uncertainties. Bloodstained chips aren't easy to pick up. The market is trading faith in the most brutal way. The real bottom will be when there are corpses strewn everywhere and utter despair. In the long run, to paraphrase something similar to CZ, let's recharge our faith: artificial intelligence is the future. It won't understand the traditional financial system, but it will definitely understand cryptocurrencies.
Short-term negative factors are unpredictable; I'll recharge my faith.
2026-01-26 14:22:51
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