Bear Hunt: Winter is Coming - Short-Term Bitcoin Trend Analysis and Bear Bottom Prediction

Getting back to the main point, let's first predict the recent trend. The monthly chart shows a large bearish candlestick, and with six days left until the close, it's unlikely to turn bullish. The key point to watch is after next month's close; a further downward test would present a good opportunity for phased entry into a long-term position. I'll update the specific price later. For now, use this as a reference, plant a seed in your mind, and wait for the right time to act. On the weekly chart, four consecutive bearish weeks have broken below the 60-week moving average and the upward trend line. The MACD's double-line death cross hasn't turned upwards yet, suggesting the previous low is likely not the bottom. Even if there's a short-term rebound, there are two key levels above: 90,000-91,000 and 98,000-99,000. I predict it's unlikely the second key level will be broken in the next eight weeks. The following analysis uses two reference points: the previous low and the April low (if either not broken or only slightly broken). Initially, use $80,000 plus or minus $1,000 as a reference for entry. If it breaks, enter around $74,000; if it holds, enter around $77,000-$76,000; if it breaks further, enter around $73,800-$72,800. This is a short-term analysis based on the current market structure. Specific trading decisions can be made flexibly based on subsequent market changes. Regarding the bear market bottom, it's too early to predict. We'll simply use Fibonacci extension lines to provide two price references, which are generally accurate based on historical cycles: 63,145 and 52,362. You can save screenshots of these prices for future market verification. Once the true bottom of the bear market is reached, I will provide my views in updated articles. That's all for today.