Let me tell you about the Bitcoin bull and bear market debate.

There's a lot of talk about entering a bear market right now. Looking at historical cycles, the current timing does seem somewhat similar. The last cycle saw Bitcoin's halving in 2020, and the bull market peaked in November 2021. Technically, the monthly candlestick pattern also suggests a top (death spiral). Regarding the drop of around $30,000, I believe this volatility is normal for Bitcoin's current price, given its higher price per unit. This sharp drop can be seen as a shakeout, a way to reduce the weight of long positions, as the weekly candlestick structure is still above the uptrend line. Now, let me share my view and prediction for the bull/bear market. While the weekly structure is above the trend line, the MACD's double-line death cross needs further confirmation. Therefore, I define the $90,000 level as the bull/bear dividing line. If the price doesn't break $90,000, or even a significant drop below $100,000, and the subsequent rebound can hold above $110,000, then this drop is a shakeout, and there will be a final bull run, with a high of around $131,000. If the subsequent market rebound merely stabilizes above 110,000, followed by another period of volatile decline or continued sideways trading and gradual drop, eventually falling below 90,000, and then fails to stabilize above 100,000 during any subsequent rebound, then the probability of entering a bear market is extremely high. The above is my personal view on bull and bear markets. Those with similar perspectives can refer to this prediction and observe subsequent market movements to see if it holds true.