The U.S. September nonfarm payrolls report will be released tonight, with new job growth expected to fall to 90,000. The data will directly affect the Federal Reserve's rate path and risk asset pricing, and is one of the most timely macro variables in current global risk asset pricing. After the report is released, the market's assessment of the gap between actual employment data and expectations, and the resulting reassessment of the policy path, will be key to observing risk asset price reactions.
From the perspective of the nature of the data, the nonfarm payrolls report reflects the latest changes in the U.S. labor market. The new job growth expectation falling to 90,000 indicates that the market's expectation for the pace of U.S. labor market expansion in September has clearly converged. Because nonfarm payrolls data is transmitted to risk assets such as stocks, bonds and crypto assets through expectations for the Fed's policy path, the data not only affects macro-level asset pricing, but also indirectly influences sentiment toward crypto market capital flows. At present, the report's specific component data and prior value revisions have not yet been released. The core facts that can be confirmed are the report's release time and the new job growth expectation. The market focus is whether the actual figure will significantly deviate from this expectation, thereby changing judgments about the Fed's subsequent policy path.
Before the report's release, new capital flow data has emerged in the crypto market. The latest disclosure shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a single-day net inflow of USD 103 million. By product, BlackRock's IBIT recorded a net inflow of USD 196 million, the highest among disclosed products. In terms of total volume, IBIT's net inflow was larger than the overall market net inflow, which means other ETFs combined saw a net outflow of about USD 93 million. It should be noted that the available information can only confirm two certain facts: the overall market net inflow of USD 103 million and BlackRock IBIT's net inflow of USD 196 million, ranking first. For the specific flow direction of other individual products, it is not possible to make a one-by-one judgment based solely on the total volume relationship. This capital flow update occurred before the release of the nonfarm payrolls data, providing the latest snapshot for observing risk asset capital allocation.
Spot Bitcoin ETF fund flows are regarded as an important indicator of mainstream capital entry. BlackRock IBIT's large net inflow has a direct impact on market sentiment. Before the release of the nonfarm payrolls report, the overall ETF net inflow of USD 103 million and IBIT's net inflow of USD 196 million provided the latest observation window for risk asset capital allocation. At the product level, the overall net inflow indicates that spot Bitcoin ETFs received net capital allocation that day; at the market sentiment level, the large net inflow of leading product IBIT may influence participants' judgment of capital trends. If subsequent fund flows can continue to show net inflows, it would help further confirm institutional capital's willingness to allocate to crypto assets; however, this judgment still needs to be verified by subsequent data, and currently only the single-day net inflow fact can be confirmed.
Meanwhile, a new risk event has emerged in DeFi security. The Aave v3 Loop Safe adapter was attacked, resulting in a loss of 114 ETH. Aave said the main contract was not affected. As a leading DeFi protocol, Aave's security incident has drawn high attention. Based on disclosed information, the loss occurred at the adapter level, not the protocol's main contract. As of press time, the time of the attack, specific vulnerability details and follow-up handling arrangements have not been disclosed. The core fact of the incident is that a loss occurred at the adapter level, but the protocol's main contract was not affected, so it did not directly impact the security of Aave protocol's core assets. Security risks at the adapter level still warrant continued attention.
Regarding sovereign Bitcoin adoption, the IMF exempted El Salvador from restrictions on increasing Bitcoin holdings and approved a disbursement of USD 139 million. This matter involves sovereign Bitcoin adoption and the attitude of international regulators, and has global regulatory and BTC adoption narrative value. At present, the specific conditions of the exemption, the use of the funds and the subsequent execution timeline have not been further disclosed. Therefore, this information is more suitable as an observation of a sovereign-level regulatory signal than as a definitive policy conclusion. Signals of coordination between international regulators and sovereign countries on Bitcoin adoption still require more specific execution details to verify the actual scope of impact.
On institutional expectations, Citi raised its 12-month Bitcoin target price to USD 113,000 and its Ethereum target price to USD 3,028, while also providing ETF inflow expectations. Major investment banks' upward revisions to BTC and ETH target prices, as well as expectations around ETF inflows, provide some guidance for market expectations. It should be clear that target prices are institutional expectations and are not equivalent to actual price performance; ETF inflow expectations also need to be verified by subsequent fund flow data. The specific assumptions, time path and ETF inflow expectation figures behind Citi's forecast have not been disclosed. Therefore, this information is more suitable as a reference for institutional forward-looking views and should not be regarded as a definitive judgment on the price path.
Overall, against the backdrop of the upcoming nonfarm payrolls report, the crypto market is simultaneously seeing multiple pieces of information, including ETF net inflows, a DeFi security incident, progress on sovereign adoption, and investment bank target price adjustments. Although these pieces of information belong to different dimensions, they are all within the same time window, jointly constituting multiple directions that warrant attention in the current crypto market and at the macro level. Among them, nonfarm payrolls data is a macro variable; spot Bitcoin ETF fund flows reflect allocation behavior that has already occurred; the Aave security incident involves the operational status of a DeFi protocol; the IMF and El Salvador matter involves sovereign adoption and regulatory attitudes; and Citi's target prices are institutional forward-looking views. There is no direct causal or combined relationship among these pieces of information; each constitutes an independent information point.
Looking ahead, attention can be paid to risk asset pricing reactions after the release of the U.S. September nonfarm payrolls report, whether spot Bitcoin ETF fund flows can continue to show net inflows, and changes in BlackRock IBIT's share of overall fund flows. At the same time, follow-up handling after the Aave adapter attack and the operation of the main contract, whether more information is disclosed on El Salvador-related arrangements after the IMF approved the disbursement, and whether Citi's Bitcoin and Ethereum target prices and ETF inflow expectations can be verified by subsequent data or institutional information can all serve as further observation directions. After the nonfarm payrolls data is released, the market's reassessment of the Fed's policy path will be directly reflected in risk asset prices, which is also an important window for testing whether the current fund flow data and institutional expectations are sustainable.