According to BlockBeats, Bitcoin faces several key macroeconomic events this week. The US August PPI and CPI will be released on Thursday and Friday respectively, and the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on September 16. CME FedWatch data shows that the market currently expects a 58.4% probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%.
Meanwhile, Japan's record-breaking currency intervention and its potential sale of US Treasury bonds have become a focus of market attention. Japan's foreign exchange reserves have decreased by approximately $79.57 billion since the end of July, leading the market to believe that Japan may sell US Treasury bonds to fund its yen intervention. Polymarket data shows that the probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates by 25 basis points in September is currently at 98%. Changes in the yen and carry trades could further impact global liquidity and the crypto market.
Regarding on-chain data, CryptoQuant points out that the recent BTC surge is primarily driven by the futures market, without corresponding confirmation from spot demand. Derivative open interest increased by approximately $2.3 billion to $27.53 billion in a single day, while spot demand remains negative, meaning the sustainability of the current rally remains questionable.
From a technical perspective, BTC achieved its first weekly close above $80,000 in several months this week, but strong selling pressure still exists around $80,000. Meanwhile, the BTC weekly Supertrend indicator turned a "buy" signal for the first time since November 2025, a similar signal that appeared after the bear market bottomed out in early 2023.