According to BlockBeats, on August 25th, both prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket indicated that the probability of the 10-year US Treasury yield continuing to rise this year is higher. Kalshi data shows a 56% probability that the 10-year US Treasury yield will reach or exceed 4.75% by the end of 2026, and a 27% probability that it will exceed 5%. Polymarket, on the other hand, shows approximately a two-thirds probability that the 10-year US Treasury yield will exceed 4.8% at least once this year.
Despite U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessenter's attempts to lower yields through measures such as expanding long-term Treasury repurchase agreements, the market reaction has been lukewarm. Barclays strategists believe that factors such as sticky inflation, fiscal deficits, Treasury supply, and term premiums could still push yields higher, estimating a fair yield of approximately 4.95% for the 10-year Treasury bond, about 25 basis points higher than current levels.
Furthermore, rising Japanese government bond yields and increased AI capital expenditures could further weaken overseas investors' demand for US Treasuries. Meanwhile, the approximately 4.7% yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has begun to pose a stronger competition to US stocks, suggesting the market may be gradually transitioning from a "TINA" (no other option) to a "TARA" (truly alternative) era.