According to BlockBeats, on August 25th, Polymarket trader "TwoEyes" bet for four consecutive days that the Federal Reserve would not raise interest rates in September, but today he reversed course and shorted the Nasdaq.
From the morning of August 22nd to the early morning of August 23rd, the investor spent approximately $113,700 through 149 purchases, betting that interest rates would remain unchanged in September, with a weighted probability of approximately 68.42% at the time of purchase. Early this morning, the investor invested another approximately $10,050 with an average probability of 67%, continuing to bet that interest rates would not rise by 25 basis points in September. The total additional investment from these two rounds is approximately $123,700.
As of press time, the probability of "interest rates remaining unchanged in September" is 66.5%, and the probability of "no 25 basis point rate hike in September" is 67.5%. The combined cost of its two core positions is approximately $151,200, and the current unrealized loss is approximately $4,168.
About six hours after the latest round of market prediction buying ended at 4 a.m. today, the associated address began establishing a short position in the Nasdaq on Hyperliquid.
Currently, this address has shorted 51,6369 contracts of XYZ100 with a leverage of 30x, with a position value of approximately US$1,510,800. XYZ100 is currently trading at 29,258 points, with a floating loss of approximately US$10,800, a return of approximately -21.69%, and a liquidation price of 38,444.8 points.
With the positions at both ends combined, the $151,200 forecast position may have provided limited upside insurance for this tenfold $1.51 million Nasdaq short position.
If the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged in September, the two core forecast positions could be redeemed for a total of approximately $220,200; based on current holding costs and excluding transaction fees, the maximum profit would be approximately $69,100.
For every 1 point increase in the Nasdaq short position, 51.6369 contracts would incur a loss of approximately $51.64. This projected profit could cover a maximum increase of approximately 1337.5 points, equivalent to about 4.6% of the entry price of 29,048 points, corresponding to a static break-even point of approximately 30,385.5 points.
The XYZ100 has now risen to 29,258 points, consuming approximately 210 points of buffer. Based on current prices, assuming the outcome of "keeping interest rates unchanged in September" materializes, the remaining profit of the forecast position could potentially cover approximately 1,127.5 points, or 3.85%, of the misjudged upside potential for the Nasdaq short position.