The probability of the US and Iran reaching a Strait of Hormuz agreement by August 15th, according to Polymarket, has dropped to 11%, a 37% decrease from last week.

PPP forecasting market tool monitoring shows that the probability of the US and Iran reaching a Strait of Hormuz agreement by August 15th has dropped to 11%, a 37% decrease from last week. The probability of reaching an agreement by August 31st has fallen to 26%, a 23% decrease from last week. Currently, negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have once again stalled. According to US officials, a passage management arrangement involving Iran, Oman, and the US in the Strait of Hormuz had been negotiated, but the agreement has been shelved for several days without being announced. As a result, market expectations for an agreement to be reached and for navigation to resume in the short term have further declined. Join the PPP signal push community to get ahead of the curve and seize opportunities.