Polymarket has a new post titled "Will the US government revoke public access to another major AI model?"

According to Odaily Planet Daily, the PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that Polymarket has added a new question: "Will the US government revoke public access to another major AI model?", with a current probability of 33%. Previously, the US government's ban on Anthropic's Fable 5 model was interpreted by the market as a security blockade of key AI model technology, triggering panic in the AI industry. The settlement rules state: if the US federal government passes relevant legislation, issues an executive order, implements export controls, or takes any other measures that substantially restrict public access to a major artificial intelligence model by the end of 2026, the market result will be "Yes". Otherwise, the market result will be "No". A "qualifying action" refers to a formal measure taken by the US government that is equivalent to a complete ban on public access to a particular artificial intelligence model within the United States. Furthermore, the settlement rules emphasize that regardless of the true purpose or nominal goal of the action; if an action actually prevents the public from accessing the model within the United States—for example, prohibiting the model from being provided to foreign citizens or governments—it qualifies as long as the general public cannot access the model through regular channels within the United States. Simply excluding access to a model from a single source is insufficient. Removals that fall under public access rights and are not the result of any formal action by the U.S. government are ineligible. "Mainstream AI models" refers to flagship, general-purpose large language models or multimodal foundational models developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Models specific to a particular task, or those that are outdated and used only for research or preview purposes, do not qualify. The action can target a single model or a group of models, as long as at least one significant AI model is consequently blocked from public access within the United States. Temporarily blocking public access to a model qualifies. However, if an action has been implemented or a resolution has been issued, but the model remained publicly accessible until the resolution took effect, then the action does not qualify. Information for this market is sourced from official information and announcements from the U.S. government and relevant AI companies. However, it's also possible to reach a consensus by referring to reliable reports. Odaily Seer continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.