Bitcoin starts the week around $74,800, weighed down by ETF outflows and an unfriendly macro backdrop.
Tuesday's US inflation report is the first big test, arriving with a December Federal Reserve rate hike already largely priced in. Bitcoin is trading more like a leveraged bet on interest rates and the Nasdaq than a hedge against Washington, and this week is likely to confirm that.
The Setup: Five Red Weeks and a Failing Bid
Bitcoin has posted five straight weekly losses since a weekly close of $86,507 on October 4. Last week it opened at about $78,230 and closed near $74,750, a drop of about 4.5%.
It reached about $81,000 on November 4 before falling to a low of $73,477 on Sunday, its lowest level since August 21. The steepest drop came on Thursday, when Bitcoin fell 5.6% as investors reacted to the Democratic sweep in Tuesday's midterms and fresh worries about AI spending.
The flow data is worse than the price action.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $1.28 billion last week , their worst week since late June. That flipped the funds from about $368 million in net inflows for 2026 to $914.1 million in net outflows. BlackRock's IBIT accounted for $403 million of Friday's redemptions.
The weakness goes beyond Bitcoin. Spot ether ETFs lost $365.3 million, their sixth straight week of outflows, and Solana and Hyperliquid funds recorded their fifth. Ether traded around $2,244 and Solana around $89.84 on Saturday.
Holders are capitulating rather than defending positions. CryptoQuant data shows that 89% of short-term holders' exchange inflows were sent at a loss, and the amount of Bitcoin sent to exchanges at a loss jumped from about 2,600 BTC to nearly 33,000 BTC in a week.
Bulls read the same data as a cleanout. One analyst cited by CoinCentral noted that only 58.3% of Bitcoin's supply was in profit at $76,000, a level that has historically lined up with accumulation phases.
Both readings can be true. Sellers under pressure can exhaust themselves without the price turning right away.
Tuesday: The Inflation Print That Decides the Week
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases October CPI on Tuesday, November 10, at 8:30 a.m. ET. It is the last CPI report before the Fed's December 8–9 meeting, because November's figures are not due until December 10.
The month-on-month numbers will matter most. Because of the gap in data collection during the October 2025 government shutdown, BLS will not publish October 12-month changes for indexes with no October 2025 data, and the market is likely to trade the monthly figures instead. Nowcasts point to a headline rise of about 0.2% to 0.3% and core of about 0.2%, after September's 0.6% and 0.3%. September's annual rate was 3.7%.
That makes an initial misreading of the data more likely, and a sharp first reaction possible.
There are three scenarios to consider.
Soft core (0.1% to 0.2%): hike odds fall, yields drop and Bitcoin rebounds. The test is whether it can retake the 100-week EMA near $78,900.
In line: a December hike stays priced at about 75%, attention shifts to equities and Nvidia, and Bitcoin stays range-bound with a downward bias.
Hot core (0.3% or more): a December hike becomes close to certain, 2027 tightening gets repriced and Bitcoin is likely to test the 200-day average near $73,200, with the 200-week EMA at about $69,500 the next major level.
The risks are not balanced. Bitcoin looks cheap and sentiment has collapsed, but a soft CPI print would remove only one obstacle. ETF outflows, the equity selloff and political uncertainty would remain.
The Fed: A Hike Is the Base Case
Rate cuts are off the table for now.
The Fed raised rates in September and held them at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Governor Lisa Cook dissented in favor of another hike, and Chair Kevin Warsh has kept the door open to further increases.
Friday's jobs report strengthened that case. Payrolls rose by 165,000, far above the Dow Jones consensus of 59,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% and average hourly earnings rose 0.4% on the month.
CME FedWatch now puts the odds of a quarter-point hike in December at 76.8%. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to about 4.87%, the 30-year to about 5.28% and the 2-year to 4.52%. A long-bond yield near 5.3% is a high bar for an asset that pays no yield.
In this environment, markets cheer falling inflation and punish strong data, so even good growth news can weigh on Bitcoin.
Several Fed officials are scheduled to speak before the December 8–9 meeting. Watch for any who push back on a December hike or hint at a pause afterward. A signal that one more hike would be enough would matter more for Bitcoin than the CPI headline.
The Transmission Channel Nobody Priced: AI Equities
The most important new link is between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq .
On Thursday, the Nasdaq Composite fell 5.5%, entering a correction about 12% below its October 6 record. The S&P 500 lost about 4.4%, its worst session since the April 2025 tariff rout, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged about 12%, its worst day since March 2020, on fears that Democratic gains could slow the buildout of AI data centers.
Crypto is exposed to the same liquidity risks , and the shift of Bitcoin miners into AI computing ties the sector even more closely to this trade.
Three events will test it this week. CoreWeave reports after Tuesday's close, with analysts expecting an adjusted loss of about $1.17 per share, according to Earnings Whispers. Cisco and Applied Materials report after Thursday's close, and Nvidia follows on November 17.
Weak guidance on AI spending would extend the equity drawdown and weigh on Bitcoin. A steadier market would help crypto find a floor.
Oil: The One Tailwind
Energy is one input working in crypto's favor.
Brent crude settled at about $116.72 on October 23, its highest close since late April, after Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and a tanker oil spill off the UAE. It has since fallen back sharply, unwinding much of October's risk premium. One analyst argued that a Democratic Congress could discourage President Trump from escalating the conflict with Iran, which would ease inflation expectations.
The tailwind is fragile. The Strait of Hormuz remains a major headline risk, and while energy prices have fallen recently, October's CPI will still reflect the earlier spike. If November's decline is taken into account, an energy-driven jump in the headline number could be looked through, and bulls will need that reading to make their case.
Washington: A Policy Reset, Not a Catastrophe
The midterms removed the most immediate legislative catalyst.
The CLARITY Act, the market-structure bill, failed a Senate cloture vote 49–50 in September. After the Democratic sweep, Kalshi traders priced only a 6% chance that it becomes law before 2027. Trump-linked tokens fell the most , with TRUMP down 17% on November 4.
The picture is more complicated than a straightforward loss for crypto. House Democrats are discussing expanding Rep. Maxine Waters' Crypto Investor and Consumer Bill of Rights into a broader market-structure bill, with a larger role for the SEC and tougher rules for exchanges. TD Cowen has said a divided outcome could be better for Bitcoin, since Waters could trade support for parts of a bill in exchange for investor protections.
Expect little action this week. The new Congress has not been seated, and the lame-duck session is the only near-term window. The real signals will be committee chair appointments and any comments on custody and SEC oversight.
Administration-linked tokens carry the most political risk, while Bitcoin and other large-cap assets are driven more by rates and equities than by legislation.
Plumbing Risks: Hacks and Enforcement
Security incidents are adding to the risk.
The FBI attributed the $6.3 billion hack of Binance on October 29 to North Korea's TraderTraitor group, and Binance said in its latest update that it has replenished 98% of the stolen assets. Separately, Brazilian exchange Mercado Bitcoin was hacked, with analysts estimating losses of more than $46 million, though the exchange says customers lost nothing.
The US Treasury's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network has also named exchange MEXC a "primary money laundering concern," citing at least $16 billion in illicit flows, and will bar US banks from processing transfers to or from it.
Lingering custody concerns weigh on ETF demand, and further exchange incidents or enforcement actions could erode confidence further.
Levels and Signals: The Technical Map
Support: Bitcoin closed the week below the $75,900 weekly support analysts had flagged. The 200-day moving average near $73,200 is the next level, followed by the 200-week EMA at about $69,500.
Resistance: the 100-week EMA near $78,900. A close above it and a hold above $81,000 would open a path toward $85,000.
Momentum: the weekly RSI has dropped below 50, and the daily RSI is near 38, neutral to weak .
Five signals matter more than the price:
- Core CPI: a monthly rise above 0.2% would be bearish.
- Daily ETF flows: three straight days of inflows would signal that institutional buyers are returning.
- The Nasdaq: crypto is trading as the same risk, so a tech rebound is a precondition for a crypto rally.
- Two-year and 10-year yields: a break lower in yields would be a cleaner bullish signal than any crypto headline.
- Friday's PPI: a second inflation reading could confirm or reverse Tuesday's move.
The Bottom Line
The macro setup for the week looks like mild stagflation: elevated inflation, a strong labor market, a Fed leaning toward another hike and an equity market losing faith in AI.
Bitcoin lacks a catalyst of its own. The legislative outlook has dimmed and ETF demand has faded.
The base case is choppy trading between $73,000 and $79,000, with the CPI report setting the direction. A rally needs a soft core reading and a stable Nasdaq. A selloff needs only a hot print and a weak reaction to AI earnings.
Sentiment is near the lows seen earlier this year, which tends to limit further declines, but it does not mean the bottom is in. A daily close below the 200-day average near $73,200 would hand control to sellers.
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