In the latest week, the crypto market saw noteworthy changes across spot ETF fund flows, regulatory applications, macroeconomic rate expectations and on-chain risk assessment. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $241 million last week, marking a third consecutive week of net inflows; Ethereum spot ETFs posted a net outflow of $138 million last week. Viewed side by side, the two sets of data show that short-term institutional allocation to Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs has moved in opposite directions, directly affecting related market liquidity and sentiment. There were also new developments in regulatory applications, macroeconomic rate expectations and on-chain risk assessment: OKX filed an application with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to launch a tokenized U.S. equities trading platform; S&P Global Ratings launched a risk assessment framework for on-chain lending vaults; and CME data showed a 77.9% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in October. The simultaneous emergence of these developments reflects the parallel evolution of institutional asset allocation, the integration of traditional finance and the crypto market, macroeconomic policy expectations and on-chain risk assessment systems.
From a product structure perspective, the net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs were not evenly distributed across all products. BlackRock's IBIT contributed the bulk of the increase and was the core source of the overall net inflow into Bitcoin spot ETFs for the week. On the Ethereum spot ETF side, Fidelity's FETH saw the largest outflow and was the main product driving the net outflow. BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FETH stood at opposite ends of inflows and outflows, making them key subjects for observing fund changes in the two product categories. The performance of the two products had a significant impact on the overall data. This high concentration of flows at the product level means that when observing spot ETF fund flows, close attention should be paid to changes in leading products rather than only looking at aggregate data.
Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $241 million last week, the third consecutive week of net inflows. Three consecutive weeks of net inflows means that over the most recent three statistical weeks, Bitcoin spot ETFs all recorded net inflows, rather than a single-week fluctuation. This data indicates that the fund absorption of Bitcoin spot ETFs has a certain degree of continuity. In terms of funding sources, BlackRock's IBIT contributed the bulk of the increase. That is, against the backdrop of overall net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs, incremental funds were concentrated in leading products rather than all products absorbing funds simultaneously. As the main source of incremental funds, changes in BlackRock's IBIT have an important impact on the overall flow direction of BTC spot ETFs. At the current stage, consecutive net inflows and BlackRock's IBIT as the main incremental contributor are the core facts of the Bitcoin spot ETF funding picture.
In contrast to Bitcoin spot ETFs, Ethereum spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $138 million last week. This product line turned to net outflows in the latest week. Fidelity's FETH saw the largest outflow and was the main product driving outflows for the week. Net outflows mean funds withdrew from the relevant products, and the scale of outflows was relatively clear in the weekly data. This change reflects that institutional funds have become more cautious about short-term ETH allocation. Compared with the three consecutive weeks of net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs, Ethereum spot ETFs failed to maintain net inflows in the same statistical period, creating a clear divergence. Fidelity's FETH outflow performance is an important clue for understanding this change. For Ethereum spot ETFs, the $138 million net outflow and Fidelity's FETH leading outflows together constitute the core characteristics of the current funding picture.
Observing Bitcoin spot ETF and Ethereum spot ETF data side by side shows that within the same statistical period, funds did not take a consistent attitude toward the two types of spot ETF products. Bitcoin spot ETFs maintained net inflows for three consecutive weeks, while Ethereum spot ETFs turned to net outflows. Inflows were concentrated in Bitcoin spot ETFs, especially BlackRock's IBIT; outflows were concentrated in Ethereum spot ETFs, especially Fidelity's FETH. This divergence is the main feature of the current spot ETF funding picture and also shows that the two product categories should not be simply combined for observation. Consecutive net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs directly affect related market liquidity and sentiment, while net outflows from Ethereum spot ETFs reflect that institutional funds have become more cautious about short-term allocation. The two coexist rather than moving in a single direction.
Beyond spot ETF fund flows, there was a new regulatory application. OKX filed an application with the SEC to launch a tokenized U.S. equities trading platform. The application involves the SEC's innovation exemption pathway. If approved, it would promote the integration of traditional securities and crypto trading and carries strong regulatory significance. This development and spot ETF fund flows belong to different levels, but both reflect that the connection between the crypto market and the traditional financial system is deepening. If OKX's proposed tokenized U.S. equities platform is launched, it could provide a new way to connect traditional securities and crypto trading.
On macroeconomic rate expectations, CME data showed a 77.9% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in October. Fed rate expectations directly affect risk asset valuations, and CME data is a key reference for market pricing. While spot ETF fund flows diverged, the probability data for unchanged rates provides another dimension for observing the environment in which risk assets are situated. This data only reflects the current market-implied probability and does not constitute a judgment on rate decisions. For the crypto market, changes in macroeconomic rate expectations may affect the overall valuation environment for risk assets.
Traditional rating agencies also made a new move in the on-chain lending sector. S&P Global Ratings launched an on-chain lending vault risk assessment framework, covering a $10 billion market. The scale covered by traditional rating agencies has reached $10 billion. The launch of this framework means traditional rating agencies have entered the on-chain lending risk assessment process, strengthening the institutionalization narrative. For the on-chain lending market, the coverage scale of the risk assessment framework and related standards may become points for follow-up observation. As a traditional rating agency, S&P Global Ratings' involvement gives on-chain lending risk measurement more institutional perspectives.
Returning to spot ETF fund flow data, BTC spot ETFs recorded net inflows for three consecutive weeks, indicating that this product line maintained net fund absorption during the statistical period; ETH spot ETFs recorded net outflows, indicating that this product line saw net fund withdrawal in the latest week. BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FETH stood out at opposite ends, showing a high concentration of funds at the product level. For market participants, these data help understand changes in liquidity and sentiment, but do not constitute a judgment on price direction. The currently confirmable focus remains BlackRock's IBIT's incremental contribution and Fidelity's FETH leading outflows.
Going forward, attention needs to be paid to whether Bitcoin spot ETFs can sustain consecutive net inflows and whether Ethereum spot ETF net outflows continue. Whether BlackRock's IBIT continues to contribute the main incremental amount and whether Fidelity's FETH outflows change will affect the overall fund direction of their respective product lines. Because spot ETF fund flow data has weekly updates, data over multiple consecutive weeks better reflects trends than single-week data. At the same time, follow-up progress on OKX's tokenized U.S. equities trading platform application, updates to CME rate probabilities and changes in the coverage of S&P Global Ratings' on-chain lending risk assessment framework can also serve as observation points for industry developments. The above points of attention are all based on disclosed data and do not involve judgments on prices or future returns.
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