Weekend Market Analysis and Trading Recommendations

The negative news has been priced in, and the short covering has driven a short squeeze. Our internal community has already provided strategies; check my profile for more information. The win rate is extremely high, and there are high rebates. August's core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, exceeding expectations, and the probability of an interest rate hike surged to 90%. However, the crypto market rose instead of falling, the root cause being excessive short positions. Ethereum shorts suffered $255 million in liquidations within 24 hours, while Bitcoin shorts lost $172 million. After a brief dip to $76,040 without breaking the key support, mechanical short covering was triggered, forming a short squeeze rebound. Institutional funds are also shifting: BlackRock's IBIT saw a net inflow of approximately $3.5 billion in the past month. Bitcoin (BTC) is currently around $77,200. The key 4-hour support level of $75,600-$76,000 has been tested three times without breaking, while the resistance levels are $79,800-$81,000. The golden cross signal appeared briefly and then faded, with the 50-day EMA falling back below the 200-day EMA. The signal is fragile and should not be relied upon. A pullback to 77,000-76,500 with a potential bottoming signal could present a small long position with a stop-loss at 75,700 and a target of 79,200-79,800. A rebound to the resistance zone could present a small short position with a stop-loss at 80,500. Ethereum (ETH) is currently around $2,510, outperforming BTC. The core resistance zone of 2,566-2,571 has not been firmly established on either the daily or weekly charts, with a long upper shadow after the initial surge. Weekly support lies at 2,338-2,375. A rebound to 2,560-2,571 with resistance could present a small short position with a stop-loss at 2,600 and a target of 2,510-2,480. A break below 2,430 could present a long opportunity near 2,400.