The probability of the Clarity Act passing this year has dropped to 21%, and the Senate will vote on it for the first time on September 15.

According to data from Polymarket, as reported by Odaily Planet Daily, the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law by December 31st is 21%, with related contract trading volume exceeding $5.5 million as of August 9th. Galaxy Research had previously lowered its expectation of the bill's passage in 2026 from 50% to 30%. The US Senate submitted a motion to end debate on August 8th to advance the bill, but no full Senate vote was held. Senators will return to the Senate on September 14th, and according to procedural rules, the first vote to end debate will be on September 15th. The CLARITY Act aims to delineate the regulatory authority of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over digital assets. Senate negotiations still involve three unresolved issues: ethical enforcement, provisions for illicit financial activities, and stablecoin yields. The bill requires 60 votes to pass and end the obstruction process.