CME FedWatch shows the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September has risen to 61.4%.

According to Odaily Planet Daily, the CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points on September 16, increasing the target interest rate range to 3.75% to 4.00%, is 61.4%, compared to 50.6% a month ago. The expectation of a 50 basis point rate hike has dropped from 25% a week ago to 0, and the probability of a rate cut is 0. On July 29, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to maintain the target interest rate range at 3.50% to 3.75% by a vote of 9 to 3. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh stated that the Committee has only one 2% inflation target and there is no soft inflation target or implied soft target. In the forecasting market, Kalshi traders believe there is a 53% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September and a 44% probability of no change, with related trading volume exceeding $1.36 million. Polymarket's related market trading volume exceeds $8 million, with participants pricing in a 52% probability of a rate hike and a 46% probability of no change.