According to BlockBeats, on July 5th, driven by the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the trading volume of the US prediction market platform Kalshi rose to approximately $9.4 billion in June, an increase of nearly 77% from approximately $5.3 billion in May, setting a new record. During the same period, Polymarket International's trading volume increased from approximately $3.5 billion to approximately $4.3 billion.
Data shows that the World Cup has become a major catalyst for growth in prediction market trading. With the World Cup expanding to 48 teams for the first time, the increased number of matches and knockout stage scenarios has boosted trading activity for single-match contracts. For example, the Round of 16 match between Canada and Morocco saw trading volumes exceeding $48 million on Kalshi and $26.8 million on Polymarket.
However, the rapid growth in trading volume has further fueled regulatory controversy. Several U.S. states continue to argue that sports event contracts should be regulated under betting regulations, rather than the derivatives market regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Meanwhile, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) recently warned that some event contracts may already fall under the existing binary options regulatory framework.
Analysts believe that the World Cup has validated the ability of prediction markets to attract liquidity during major events, but whether sports prediction contracts should be subject to financial derivatives regulation or betting regulation remains a core regulatory issue for the industry.