The share of Bitcoin’s active supply held at a loss now exceeds the share held in profit. This estimate excludes bitcoins that have not moved in more than ten years, a large proportion of which is considered illiquid. After this adjustment, less than 45% of the supply is estimated to be in profit. In other words, most bitcoins within this group are now held at a loss. Historically, readings below 40% have often coincided with the lows of corrective phases. Conversely, when this proportion approaches 100%, the risk of a reversal increases. These observations highlight the appeal of a contrarian approach, building exposure when losses dominate and reducing it when profits become widespread.