Grayscale’s research arm says Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with gold has climbed above 50% this year, while its correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has fallen from over 60% to roughly 33% — a rotation the asset manager frames as the return of the “debasement trade.” In a note published on August 27 titled “Regime Shift: Bitcoin and the Return of the Debasement Trade,” Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl said the shift may reflect renewed investor focus on Bitcoin’s scarcity, monetary independence and role as a store of value, according to Grayscale’s “The Stack” research series .
A Rotation Away From Tech Correlation
The 90-day figures mark a sharp reversal from recent years, when Bitcoin frequently traded in step with growth stocks. Pandl noted that Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq 100 slipped from more than 60% to about 33%, while its correlation with gold rose from near zero at the start of the year to above 50%. The numbers are backward-looking, drawn from a rolling 90-day window, and Grayscale presents them as evidence that investors are again treating Bitcoin as a scarce monetary asset rather than a leveraged bet on technology equities. The divergence underscores a broader re-rating of the asset this year.
The ‘Debasement Trade’ Returns
The shift arrives as U.S. federal debt passes $40 trillion and persistent fiscal deficits renew attention on the “debasement trade” — the argument that hard, supply-capped assets appreciate as fiat currencies lose purchasing power. Gold has already been on an extended bull run, a trend BlockchainReporter has tracked as Bitcoin’s defensive case returns to focus.
A More Favorable Regime for Scarce Assets
Pandl argued that Bitcoin and other scarce digital assets may be entering a more favorable market regime, though he stopped short of any specific price target. The outlook is a company research view rather than a realized outcome: correlation describes how assets have moved, not where they will go, and a rolling 90-day window can shift quickly. Even so, the note lands at a moment when gold’s macro drivers are already reshaping Bitcoin’s sensitivity to risk assets . Grayscale, which runs one of the largest spot Bitcoin ETFs, has long argued the asset belongs alongside gold in diversified portfolios.