Core CPI Interpretation: The Last Chance to Get on Board with Bitcoin Before the FOMC Meeting!!!

1. The U.S. September CPI data released last night exceeded expectations across the board, with both overall and core inflation rising higher than anticipated, directly increasing the market's expectation of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October from 20% to 50%. Treasury yields surged, prompting capital to shift from risk assets to high-yield, risk-free assets, leading to a decline in cryptocurrency prices. 2. With only two weeks remaining until the October FOMC meeting, markets are already pricing in the rate hike expectation. Regarding this month's decision, my view is to hold steady. Let’s review the details: prior to the CPI release, many Federal Reserve officials issued dovish signals mixed with hawkish tones. This behavior is purposeful—it reflects strategic expectations management. Such management stems from two considerations: first, the midterm elections are approaching, making this a highly sensitive period. Historically, there has never been a case of tightening monetary policy one month before midterm elections. However, market pricing based on data suggests a rate hike, so it’s likely being postponed to the December meeting to avoid undermining the perception of the Fed’s independence and its narrative that rate hikes are essential for controlling inflation in the U.S. 3. Recommendation: Go long on Bitcoin around the $80,000–$81,000 range, with a two-step target. First, aim for resistance at the daily Bollinger Band middle line ($84,000). Upon breaking through, continue upward to test the upper boundary of the trading range at $86,500.