According to BlockBeats, on July 13th, South Korean media reported on July 12th that South Korea's five major commercial banks had already consumed more than 85% of their annual household loan growth targets in the first half of this year, with two banks even exceeding their annual limits. Given the strict overall control targets set by regulatory authorities, banks have virtually no room for new lending in the second half of the year. The market therefore anticipates a credit "cliff" in the second half, and leveraged funds used for stock market lending may face significant contraction pressure.

The report points out that the two main engines driving rapid loan growth are the persistently high demand for mortgage loans and credit loans used for direct market entry. Even though banks tightened lending at the beginning of the year, neither type of demand showed a significant decline, ultimately leading to a continued rise in loan balances in the first half of the year.

For investors who rely on credit leverage to participate in the stock market, the external financing channels available in the second half of the year are facing a substantial narrowing.

According to BlockBeats, on July 13, BTC encountered resistance again near $64,000. Currently, the short-term focus is on whether it can regain a foothold above $63,000. If buying cannot regain dominance, a further test of the $60,000 psychological level cannot be ruled out.

This week will see a flurry of events in global markets, including the US June CPI, PPI, retail sales, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's first semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress, and earnings reports from heavyweight companies such as JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, TSMC, ASML, and Netflix. The market focus is no longer solely on individual economic data, but rather on whether these events can collectively validate the sustainability of the current "high capital cost" market environment. Warsh's first congressional hearing is arguably as important as the CPI itself. The market will be watching to see if he continues his current low-key policy style of avoiding forward guidance, and whether he makes any hints about the recently rising expectations of interest rate hikes. Currently, some officials within the Federal Reserve are already discussing withdrawing last year's interest rate cuts, and if the June CPI is again higher than expected, it will further increase market expectations for future policy tightening.

On the other hand, the situation in the Middle East has deteriorated again. Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz once more, while the US military continued its airstrikes on Iranian military facilities, expanding the conflict to multiple Gulf states. It is worth noting that what truly affects global inflation is not just crude oil prices, but the continued damage to global refining capacity caused by the war. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, damage to Middle Eastern refineries, and shipping risks around the Strait of Hormuz have kept global refined product supplies tight. Even if crude oil prices fall, prices for end-use energy products such as gasoline and diesel may remain high, making energy inflation more persistent than the market expects.

Meanwhile, another noteworthy theme is the AI capital race. Recently, tech giants like NVIDIA, Amazon, and SpaceX have been raising funds for AI infrastructure through massive bond issuances, but Wall Street is showing signs of absorption fatigue. The market's concern isn't about corporate creditworthiness, but rather the continued increase in corporate financing costs due to the supply of hundreds of billions of dollars in new debt. This means that while AI investment hasn't cooled down, the cost of capital is gradually becoming a significant limiting factor for valuations in the next stage, and also signifies that global liquidity is facing dual competition from government bond issuance and corporate financing needs.

In addition, the Government Pension Investment Fund of Japan (GPIF) plans to increase its allocation to alternative assets, causing the yen to rebound, which also reflects the continued adjustment of asset allocation by large global funds. If the US dollar maintains high interest rates, Japanese capital inflows continue, and AI financing needs coexist, global risk assets will continue to face pressure from liquidity reallocation.

Overall, this week the market needs to answer not only whether US inflation will rebound, but also whether global capital costs will continue to rise. With AI continuing to absorb large amounts of capital, uncertainties remaining in the energy supply chain, and the Federal Reserve's policy direction still unclear, risk assets will continue to be influenced by interest rates, liquidity, and corporate financing capabilities. This will determine whether Bitcoin can retest the $64,000 level or continue its consolidation pattern.

According to BlockBeats, on July 13, the South Korean stock market continued its downward trend of nearly a week, falling again and triggering a circuit breaker, led by Samsung and SK Hynix.

The continued decline in the stock market appears to be discouraging South Korean retail investors, with a clear flow of funds back into the cryptocurrency market. According to Coingecko data, Upbit, South Korea's largest CEX, saw a 24-hour trading volume of $4.12 billion, an increase of 436%.

The top 5 cryptocurrencies by trading volume on this CEX are, in order: Bitcoin, XRP, ETH, T, and BLAST.