According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 16.1%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 83.9%.

According to Odaily Planet Daily, US stocks closed the year 2025 with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.63%, marking its eighth consecutive month of gains and a 12.97% increase for the year; the S&P 500 fell 0.74%, but still rose 16.39% for the year; and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.76%, but still rose 20.36% for the year. All three major indexes hit new highs for the third consecutive year. Technology stocks closed lower across the board, with Oracle (ORCL.N) down 1.1%, Tesla (TSLA.O) down nearly 1.04%, and Nvidia (NVDA.O) down 0.55%.

The dollar rose on Wednesday, erasing earlier losses after stronger-than-expected labor market data, but still recorded its biggest annual decline since 2017 after a year of interest rate cuts, fiscal concerns, and uncertain trade policies under President Trump. These factors are expected to persist into 2026, meaning the dollar's weakness is likely to continue and impact some major currencies, including the euro and the pound. Both the euro and the pound have risen significantly this year. For the year, the dollar fell more than 9%, while the euro rose more than 13%. The pound rose more than 7% against the dollar for the year.

According to Odaily Planet Daily, on the last trading day of 2025, both gold and silver prices fell, but their annual gains still remained at their highest level in over forty years. Spot gold hovered around $4,320 per ounce, while silver prices fell to $71 per ounce. Trading was thin after the holiday, and the two precious metals experienced significant price fluctuations, plummeting on Monday, rebounding on Tuesday, and then falling again on Wednesday. This sharp volatility prompted the CME Group, the exchange operator, to raise margin requirements twice. Supported by a surge in demand for safe-haven assets due to heightened geopolitical risks and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, both gold and silver achieved their best annual performance since 1979. High inflation and increasingly heavy debt burdens in developed economies triggered market concerns, giving rise to so-called currency devaluation trades, further fueling the surge in precious metal prices.

According to Odaily Planet Daily, Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi believes that a weak labor market, inflation uncertainty, and political pressure will prompt the Federal Reserve to aggressively cut interest rates in early 2026. While both the market and Fed officials expect only moderate easing next year, Zandi predicts the Fed will implement three rate cuts in the first half of the year, each by 25 basis points. "Behind further monetary easing will be a still weak job market, especially in early 2026. Businesses need more time to be confident that changing trade and immigration policies and other threats will not catch them off guard before they resume hiring," he added. "Until then, job growth will not be enough to prevent further increases in unemployment. As long as unemployment continues to rise, the Fed will cut rates." Zandi's prediction is at least more aggressive than market and Fed expectations, both of which point to a slower pace of rate cuts.