The cryptocurrency market is generating mixed signals as Bitcoin trades in a critical position. Analysts suggest that a potential bottom could be formed despite the widespread negative reaction. Recent research suggests that several significant factors that historically preceded market rebounds, even as negative vibes dominate trading floors.
Market Sentiment and Volume Dynamics
Recent research from November 15 highlights an intriguing paradox in current market conditions. While trading volumes have been increasing significantly in the area around $100,000, the overall market sentiment remains largely unsatisfactory. This combination of rising activity and negative sentiment often creates the conditions for the market’s bottom.
The analyst specifically mentioned reversing the CME gap and reversing in the coming week as potential catalysts for a downward movement. CME gaps, which occur when Bitcoin’s price moves significantly during weekend trading hours while the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is closed, have historically been a result of the tendency to fill. Recent data indicates that over two-thirds of CME gaps since 2022 have closed within 48 hours, making them reliable indicators for short-term prices.
On-Chain Metrics Signal Potential Reversal
Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit (NUP) metric is one of the most compelling pieces of evidence supporting the bottom formation theory. This indicator has decreased to 0.476, its highest level since April 2025. The NUP ratio determines the amount of coins held in profit across the Bitcoin network, and when it drops below 0.5, it historically indicates short-term market losses.
CryptoQuant reported that this 0.47 to 0.48 band reversed three times since the beginning of 2024. It appeared once before the Bitcoin rally from 42,000 to 70,000 in February, the mid-2024 correction and most recently before the rebound in October to 110,000. Everyone characterized a similar pattern of leverage washouts and falling funding rates.
The technical set up is in accordance with their recent Bitcoin’s NUP signal indicating potential market bottom coverage. Analysts noted that the current decline to 0.476 replicates previous in the cycle when the NUP metric reached its close to 0.47. Each of those troughs was followed by a massive increase in the amount of Bitcoin.
Four-Year Cycle and Critical Resistance
Market analysts assert that the 4 year period is not over, adding another layer to the analysis. Bitcoin has historically followed a four-year cycle pattern associated with its halving events, though recent institutional adoption has led some analysts to question whether this traditional pattern still exists. The recent price surge of key support levels leaves the overall bullish framework intact despite the short-term weaknesses.
However, there is one of the strongest resistance clusters between $109,895 and $110,192 and is supported by 117,078 BTC. This zone is also the location of the 0.618 Fibonacci level of $109,683, and this is a formidable obstacle to any potential recovery effort. Market analysts assert that if Bitcoin moves in a precise manner above this band, then the possibility of a sustained recovery cannot be completely recovered.
Conclusion
A key aspect of the current market structure is that “things will take time”. Although it is true that the bottom signals are flashing, the journey to recovery will likely not be a quick or easy one. The convergence of multiple bottom signals is not a guarantee of a reversal but rather indicates that the risk reward ratio is changing in favor of long-term investors who can overcome the turbulence in the short-term. In the cryptocurrency market, patience and risk management are still essential.
